Where Latinos Stand: The 2024 Presidential Election

By: Diego Rentería and Marcos Catalan

Photo Credit: @element5digital

Over the past 20 years, the Latino population of the United States has predominantly voted Democratic in presidential elections. However, polls show that an increasing number of Latinos are willing to vote for Trump.

A recent poll conducted by NBC News at the end of September shows that Democrats hold a small marginal lead of 14% over Republicans in Latino voters. This is a significant drop from the 36% difference in the 2020 presidential election.

“This is not a new phenomenon when it comes to minority groups...when they vote,” said Mona Shadia, lecturer of political science and women’s studies at Cal State Long Beach. 

“Latinos are especially interesting because they represent a huge segment of the voting bloc. They will account for 14.7% of eligible voters in this upcoming November election. They are known as a ‘sleeping giant’ because they do not vote as a bloc.”

In mid-August 2024, The Washington Post released a voting poll regarding the 2024 presidential election. In the poll, it shows that 47% of Hispanic Catholics intended to vote for Trump. This is up 15% compared to the 32% Trump received in votes in 2020 from Hispanic Catholics.

“My father attributes his views to how Trump represents ‘the ideal business owner,’ seeing that he too is a small business owner and would like to expand his company more,” said Jessie Curiel Morales, a political science major at CSULB.

Alternately, many young Latino voters support Kamala Harris and are confident in who they will give their vote to in this upcoming election. 

“Yes, I am going to vote. As of right now I am voting for Harris,” said Arianna Montano, a liberal studies major at CSULB. “I believe she has better policies regarding women’s reproductive rights.” 

In an analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, it found that Latinx youth are voting less due to the lack of knowledge and understanding when it comes to voting.

“I am planning on voting, but I am not sure for which exact candidate yet. I'm not as informed, so that's sort of demotivating me from voting because I am not sure who to vote for,” said Andrea Gallardo, a healthcare administration major at CSULB.

Uninformed decisions could lead to unwanted issues for the current and future Latino community. Political science professor Teresa Wright suggests students read up on the policies of each candidate to see which resonates better with their beliefs.

“Oftentimes, we get focused on personality and things like that. Those can be important factors, but I think what’s most important is what these people are going to do when they're in office. What they say they want to do—is that what you would like to see happen?” Wright said. 

Some Latinos steer away from the primary parties, opting to cast their vote for a smaller party candidate.

“As a member of the Hispanic/Latino community, I probably would vote for the Green party just because it is neutral and it's easy to vote for,” Gallardo said. 

The Latino vote will have a significant impact in this upcoming election, so read up on each party's policies to make the best-informed vote.

Q&A with Dr. Matthew Mendez Garcia, Assistant Professor of Political Science at CSULB 

By: Elizabeth Carroll

 Q: Do you see Latino voters leaning toward or away from Trump with his immigration stance? How is immigration playing a role in voting? 

A: “Among Latino voters, I think that there has been a misconception that's finally being corrected in the mainstream media, that immigration is a top issue among Latino voters, when it's actually not. With political science research, it's usually not even in the top five for Latino voters going back decades.” 

“Over time, from one generation to the next, the cultural bonds, tend to weaken, and so Latino voters of the second and especially the third generation see themselves as more American, and they're separated. The third generation, especially, has no experience with the immigrant experience.” 

Q: If not immigration, what would you say, going into this election, is a crucial topic on the minds of varying generations of Latinos? 

A: “The economy is crucial... The working-class voters, they're the ones being pinched by inflation, the ones who are seeing prices go up, but wages not keeping up. This is the group of people, who are sort of like a split; you have more wage earners, but then you also have this growing subset of business owners, of small business owners in the community. Their day to day lives are impacted more by the economy, they can't weather it the way that upper income households can.”  

Q: What about other crucial issues that are raising questions?  

A: “If we’re talking about more cultural issues, the more salient one that we're seeing is abortion... there is a subset, that does really care about this issue, and it's young Latina voters.  

Harris has a unique appeal as a woman of color, and this is energizing young Latina voters to register, to become enthusiastic because in the Democratic Party this sort of representation, especially along identity lines, matters a lot to Democratic voters. So, you're seeing young women of color, especially, are very excited about a woman candidate having a real shot at winning the White House. It's energizing and for women of colors, it's sort of doubly so, because it is a woman of color who is running, and we're finding with especially younger Latina voters, gender matters.  

Women's issues really matter to this particular group.” 

This article is a combination of three separate articles written by Diego Rentería, Marcos Catalan, and Elizabeth Carroll. Each full article can be found at enyelb.com.