The Conservative trend among Latino Voters

Donald Trump has become a popular candidate among conservative Christian Latinos due to his policies reinforcing religious beliefs.  Photo Credit: Samuel Chacko

Over the past 20 years, the Latino population of the United States has predominantly voted Democratic in presidential elections. However, polls show that an increasing number of Latinos are willing to vote for Trump.

A recent poll conducted by NBC News at the end of September shows that Democrats hold a small marginal lead of 14% over Republicans among Latino voters. This is a significant drop from the 36% difference in the 2020 presidential election.

This begs the question: Why does a small part of a population that is vilified by a presidential candidate vote for that same candidate?

“This is not a new phenomenon when it comes to minority groups and when they vote,” said Mona Shadia, lecturer of political science and women’s studies at Cal State Long Beach.

“Latinos are especially interesting because they represent a huge segment of the voting bloc. They will account for 14.7% of eligible voters in this upcoming November election. They are known as a ‘sleeping giant’ because they do not vote as a bloc.”

In an analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, it was found that Latino youths are voting less due to the lack of knowledge and understanding when it comes to voting.

“Latinos most of the time are immigrants or children of immigrants who may not have the knowledge or information to vote,” Shadia said.

While education is the most immediate factor contributing to this trend in Latino voting, religion has also become a factor that has led some Latinos to support former President Donald Trump.

“In Latino culture, religion is a big factor,” said Jazmine Gutierrez, a political science major at CSULB. “So families migrating to the U.S. carry those religious and conservative ideals and that is what their kids are taught.”

Gutierrez plans to vote for Kamala Harris in the upcoming election due to her beliefs in bodily autonomy for women and economical plan, and is dismayed that some Latinos support Trump.

“I think it’s very saddening just because they truly don’t know what he stands for. If Latino voters who aren’t aware were to learn about his policies and comments he has made about our community, I would hope it would change their minds,” Gutierrez said.

However conservative values are strong in some Latinos, resulting in them voting Republican.

“Latinos tend to be either Catholic or Christian and these groups have strong feelings on abortion and LGBTQIA+ rights, which then ‘conservative’ politicians play on that emotional part,” Shadia said.

In mid-August 2024, The Washington Post released a voting poll regarding the 2024 presidential election. The poll shows that 47% of Hispanic Catholics intended to vote for Trump. This is up 15% compared to the 32% Trump received in votes in 2020 from Hispanic Catholics.

While religion and education play into the political decisions of Latino people, socioeconomic status plays a role as well.

A large population of the Latino people of the United States are from the low to middle working class. Like other racial or ethnic groups in similar socioeconomic situations, finances play a large role in their choice of who will lead the country fiscally.

“My father attributes his views to how Trump represents ‘the ideal business owner,’ seeing that he too is a small business owner and would like to expand his company more,” said Jessie Curiel Morales, a political science major at CSULB.

Her father owns a bodega-type business with her uncle. Although she does not completely agree with candidate Harris’s policies, Morales said she would be voting for her in the 2024 presidential election.

“My father’s point of view makes me think he puts himself as a business owner first in comparison to himself as a person of color,” Morales said.

For years, Republican fiscal platforms have promised tax cuts to U.S. citizens in exchange for their votes. This has been key, not only to attracting the Latino vote, but also to other racial and ethnic groups.

“This phenomenon has been seen in empirical studies among the middle-to working-class voters. This was recently seen in the Bush administration with the tax cuts that he promised,” Shadia said. “People voted for his tax cuts, even though they would only affect the richest 1% and have no effect on the rest of the citizenry.”

The Latino vote will be decisive in this upcoming presidential election.